Alles wat Jan bezig houdt, interesseert en irriteert... en ook een beetje onzin...

dinsdag, januari 24, 2023

Who Predicted 2022?


https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022

The "wisdom of crowds" hypothesis says that averaging many ordinary people's predictions produces a "smoothed-out" prediction at least as good as experts. That proved true here. An aggregate created by averaging all 508 participants' guesses scored at the 84th percentile, equaling superforecaster performance.